Weekly News (October 27, 2021)
This week’s Interest Rate (44th Week)
(By Fairway Home Loan )
|30 yr fx(%)||15 yr fx(%)||FHA(%)||10 yr Tr Y (%)|
|A year ago||2.875||2.490||2.625||0.664|
|A month ago||2.999||2.250||2.625||1.524|
Prime Rate:3.0% / Ref IR: 0.00- 0.25%
- 3% Down payment for 1sthome buyer is available.
- 5% Down payment 2-4 units FHA program available
- 15% Down payment 2 families -conventional program available.
- Potential home buyer — Have a pre-approval first before the shop. Now we have 48hour underwriting turn-around times for regular loans.
- 2022 Conventional loan limit: Conforming SFR : $625,000/ Conforming high balance: $937,500/ Confirming 2 Family: $702,000/ Conforming High Balance: $1,053,000
Netflix Plans to Bid on Shuttered New Jersey Army Base for a production Hub.
(NYT 10/27 )
- Netflix wants to turn a crumbling Amy base in New Jersey into one of the largest movie and television production hubs in the Northeast, a plan that has at least one important proponent: Gov. Phil Murphy.
- The company would bid for a 289 Ac chunk of Fort Monmouth in Monmouth county, about 50 miles from NYC. Bids for the site are due Jan. 12, and Netflix would not discuss the price it planned to offer. The Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority has appraised the site at $54M, but several developers previously offered more than $100M for just 89 Ac of the land in consideration.
- At nearly 300 Ac, New Jersey Shore site would be Netflix’s second largest production complex behind ABQ Studios in New Mexico.
Christina Kim is running for the director of LIBOR
(Korea Times 10/27)
- Vice president of Korean American Realtors Association(KARA), Christina Kim aims for the At-Large Director of LIBOR(Long Island Board of Realtors) as the first Korean Realtor.
- 41 Candidates are running for the 16 positions (13 two-year term, 3 one-year term).
- On-line voting will be held today(10/27) between 9:00am – 3:00pm.
- LIBOR web site: http://www.lirealtor.com
- Voting site:http://vote.associationvoting.com/libor
Commercial Sales Reached a Record in 3rd Qt
(WSJ 10/27 )
- Investors purchased a record amount of commercial real estate in the 3rd Qt, defying warnings that the Covid-19 pandemic would erode these property values and starve the industry of cash.
- Instead, purchases of apartment buildings, life-science labs and industrial properties, which serve as e-commerce distribution centers, rocketed commercial sales to more than $193B in the 3rd That is up 19% compared with the same 3 months in 2019, before the pandemic, and the biggest quarter for commercial-property sales ever, according to data firm Real Capital Analytics.
- “Coming out of Covid, we’re actually seeing an acceleration of fundamentals across a handful of sectors and that’s really driving investor attention,” said Nadeem Meghji, the head of real estate of Americas for investment company Blackstone Inc. the largest buyer of U.S. commercial property this year, according to the Real Capital.
- When the pandemic-driven recession hit the economy, many expected the commercial real-estate sector to nosedive. That never happened. Many analysts credit the Fed for preventing the debt markets from seizing up, which gave even many troubled property owners access to new capital.
Hard to find a place to live for renters who has been evicted
(Korea Times 10/25 )
- According to multiple media sources on 21st, cases of evictions have been sharply increased since the eviction moratorium ended at the August in many areas such as Houston and Dollars in TX, Phoenix in AZ, NYC, etc.
- Things make the situations worse: typically rent has increased about 10% and fund distribution out of rent assistance program is being delayed, and those renters who has been evicted are treated as bad credit holders and low credit scores.
- For the last week, one week, 5,741 families have faced evictions in 30 big cities, reported Princeton Univ. Total accumulated eviction cases since March, 2020 are 551,615 cases.
U.S. Housing Boom Will Keep Builders and Agents Busy
- NAR on Thursday reported that 6.29M existing, or previously owned, homes were sold in September, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was up from August’s 5.88M. It counted as the best month since January, when an annualized 6.66M homes were sold.
- Those figures are all, it needs to be re-emphasized, adjusted for seasonal swings. January is usually the weakest month for home sales, so its figures get pushed up. Sales are strongest during the summer months, so that numbers get pushed down.
- These days, we should consider how the pandemic made a mess of the seasonal-adjustment process. People might not be following the old house-hunting patterns and, as a result, real-estate agents might be a lot busier in the fall and winter than they were before Covid-19.
- The more important takeaway might be that, no matter the season, real-estate agents have been busier than they used to be, with sales higher this year than they were in 2019. And they might be busier still, if there were more houses to sell.
- As far as inventory goes, at September’s selling pace, there were only 2.4 months of homes on the market. That compares with an average of 3.9 months of homes in 2019.
- While busier than before the pandemic, the builders have been running up against supply-chain problems and labor shortages that are limiting how many homes they can start building and lengthening the time it takes to complete them.
- It could take years, too, before supply is adequate to meet demand – a dynamic that could continue to put upward pressure on prices long after builders’ supply-chain and labor woes are resolved. Get used to some gaudy housing numbers – they will be with us for a while.
Next year Mortgage Interest Rates expected to 4%
(Korean Daily 10/26 )
- MBA forecasted on 18th that mortgage interest rates will be up and new loan application will reduce 33% next year. The mortgage interest rates will be 3.10% toward to end of this year and it will up to 4% toward the end of 2022.
- As Fed’s tapering implemented from the end of this year, the mortgage interest rates will continue to rise till the end of 2022. Consequently Ri-fi market is cool down sharply and Ri-fi will be reduce 62% to $860B.
- New home mortgage loan is forecasted to be up 9% to 1.73T next year.
Pandemic made 3M early retirement in U.S.
(Korea Times 10/27 )
- “Marketwatch” said St. Louis Fed study reveals that about 3M people has been retired due to the pandemic, partially due to laid-off. The study has been done for the mostly baby boomer gen born between 1946 and 1964.
- Among total retirement people 5.25M, early retirement after pandemic is more than a half. That means less work force in the employment market.
- The reasons of this early retirement are 1) worries about the Covid-19 spread because of age, 2) individual asset increase because of stock market and real estate market boom.
Breadth of Delta’s Ebb May Forestall New Surge
- NYT updates on the state of the pandemic focusing three points:
- Covid’s retreat continues: The number of new daily Covid-19 cases has plunged 57 % since peaking on Sep 1st. Almost encouraging as the magnitude of decline is its breadth: Cases has been declined in every region. Even though there are local spots as almost always been the case during the pandemic, the geographic breadth of the decline does offer reason for optimism. The bottom line: There is no reason to another Covid surge soon, but surges don’t always announce themselves.
- Severity looks stable: When Delta began spreading this summer, many people worried that it is much more contagious than earlier version of the virus and much more severe. Only one of those two fears seems to be true. Delta is clearly more contagious, which is the main reason every metric of the pandemic — cases, hospitalizations and deaths – soared this summer. But a typical Covid case during the Delta wave was about as severe as a typical case earlier in the pandemic. During the wave in late 2020 and early this this, about 1.2% of positive cases led to death; during the Delta wave, the share was 1.1%. Until the research becomes clearer the best guess may be that Delta is modestly more severe, which could explain why hospitalizations and death rates have held steady even as vaccination rates have risen.
- The U.S. is underperforming: Despite all of the encouraging news, one shadow still hangs over the U.S.: The pandemic does not need to be nearly as bad it is. About 1,500 people have died of Covid everyday over the past week. And the main reason is that millions of Americans have chosen to remain unvaccinated. For older people, the effects of vaccination are profound. In late August, near the height of the Delta wave, 24 out of every 10,000 unvaccinated Americans 65 and above were hospitalized with Covid symptoms, according to C.D.C. Among fully vaccinated Americans 65 and above, the number was 1.5 per 10,000. Only 67 % of American adults without a 4 year college degree have received a shot, compared with 82% of college graduates, according to the most recent Kaiser Family Foundation poll. And only 58% of self-identified Republicans are vaccinated, compared with 90% of Democrats. It’s a triumph of misinformation. Offered a lifesaving drug to counteract a highly contagious virus, many Americans are instead taking their chances.