Weekly News (November 23, 2022)
Mortgage Interest Rates Review
(Fairway Asset Corp. 11/16/2022)
|30 yr fx (%)||15 yr fx (%)||FHA (%)||10 yr Tr Y (%)||5 yr Arm (%)||7 yr Arm (%)|
A year ago
A month ago
Federal Fund Rate: 3.75 -4.00% Prime Rate: 6.75-7.00%
Federal Fund Rate: 3.75 -4.00% Prime Rate: 6.75-7.00%: 뉴저지 입주자, 뛰는 렌트비에 법원에 청원
- A tenant(Dina Bologa) was shocked the landlord would ask 40% more to $6,000 in July for 2 Br apartment at 155 Washington St, Jersey City (“Portside Towers”), and she found another tenant with similar situation. Then they organized and filed the petition asking the rent control.
- The city’s rent control administrator agreed and, as of late August, the landlord(Equity Residential) of the building could raise rent no more than 4% a year.
- Skyrocketing rents are prompting cities and towns across the U.S. to consider enacting rent control to keep prices in check. But in communities where these tenant protection have been long on the books, many residents aren’t aware of them or find that enforcing rent control is no easy task.
Home Sales Decline again as Mortgage-rate Rise Stings: 주택 판매 건수, 9개월 계속 감소
- U.S. existing home sales fell for a nine straight month on October as the highest mortgage rates in more than a decade pushed buyers out of the market.
- NAR reported that sales of previously owned homes declined 5.9% in October from the prior month to a seasonably adjusted annual rate of 4.43M, the weakest rate since May 2020 while it fell 28.4% from a year ago. The streak of declines is the longest on record, said NAR.
- The median existing home price rose 6.6% in October from a year ago to $379,100. The price fell month-over-month for fourth straight month after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June.
U.S. Existing Home Sales / Median Price
Home-Builder Stocks Stage a Big Comeback: 주택건설 회사 주식가 회복세
- Shares of home builders, building-products and appliance companies are rebounding, outperforming the broader stock market, after mortgage rates eased off their recent highs.
- SPDR S&P Home builders rose 9.1%, PulteGroup Inc. added 13%, Builders FirstSource climbed 11%, Whirlpool Corp. gained 8.9%, all beating the benchmark S&P 500 index, which has risen 5.9%
- The market has started to anticipate that interest rates are peaking, so home-building stocks tend to lead, said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Service.
Housing Stock Rally, Defying Soft Demand: 수요 약세에도, 주택 관련주식가 상승
- Investors are seizing on any sign inflation has peaked as a reason to snap up beaten down shares – Just look at the housing stocks.
- Redfin Corp. shares have soared more than 50% since Nov.9 when the real-estate brokerage’s chief Executive warned, “we have to assume that the sun will never come up.” PulteGroup Inc. have gained 11% over the same period, despite its CEO recently described a widespread pullback in demand as interest rates climbed
- Shares of real-estate brokerages, home builders, mortgage lenders and particularly anything that touches the housing industry have surged as well, outpacing the S&P 500’s 5.8% rise.
Share-price and Index Performance
Home price might be down 20%: 주택가격, 20% 까지도 하락할수
- The chief economist with the Fed Reserve Dallas Bank said the home price might be down 20%.
- Home price in the 2nd Qt 2022 rose 94.5% compared to the 1st Qt 2013, which is 60.8% up considering the inflation factor. 40% of this rise for the last 10 years occurred between 1st Qt 2020 and 2nd Qt 2022 after the pandemic. FOMO(Fear Of Missing Out) triggered even faster home price rise.
- Redfin said that annual income must be over $100,000 in order to purchase a house with average median price in U.S. while this is the reason that home sales slowed down for several months.
Home Sales to Investor Slide 30%: 투자자 주택구매, 30% 감소
- Investor buying of homes declined 30% in the 3rd Qt, a sign that the rise in borrowing rates and high home prices that pushed traditional buyers to the sidelines are causing these firms to pull back, too.
- Companies(Investors) bought around 66,000 homes in the 40 markets tracked by Redfin during the 3rd Qt, compared with 94,000 homes during the year earlier quarter.
- But with investors’ large cash positions, and with big firms such as JPMorgan Chase planning to increase their exposure to the home buying business, investors are poised to resume more aggressive buying when rates or home prices begin to ease.
Investor home purchases, quarterly
Retail Sales Climb 1.3% in Clear Sign of Strength: 미국 소매 지출이 1.3% 증가로 아직경제 호조
- U.S. retail sales rose sharply in October, a sign of economic strength that leaves the Fed likely to keep raising interest rates as it tries to reduce persistently high inflation.
- Retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.3% last month compared with September, when they were unchanged.
- Shoppers spent more on increasingly expensive everyday staples such as gasoline and food, but they also shelled out more on discretionary items such as cars, furniture and restaurants meals.
HP Cuts Staff on Weak PC Demand: HP회사, 약한 컴퓨터 수요로 감원
- HP Inc. said it would slash up to about 10% of its workforce with a sharp slump in demand for personal computers expected to stretch into next year.
- HP, which has around 61,000 employees, had a payroll about 51,000 people a year ago, on Tuesday said it would part with 4,000 to 6,000 employees as part of a transformation plan that aims to achieve $1.4B in annualized cost saving.
- The PC market is slowing down after an acceleration of computer sales during the pandemic, when workers equipped their home offices and students required laptops for remote learning.
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