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Weekly News (January 6, 2021)

This week’s Interest Rate (1st Week)

(By Fairway Home Loan)  

   30 yr fx(%)  15 yr fx(%) FHA(%) 10 yr Tr Y (%)
A year ago      3.620       3.125            1.745
A month ago      2.625       2.375     2.625          0.921
Last week      2.625       2.375     2.625          0.918
This week      2.625       2.190     2.490          0.960

 

Prime Rate:3.0% / Ref IR: 0.00- 0.25% .

2021 Conventional loan limit: Conforming: $548,250/ Conforming high balance: $882,375

 

NY State registered 3762 Vaccine Center

(Korea Daily   1/6)

  • Currently 636 centers are operational among 3762 registered places.  NYC centers include La Marqueta market in Manhattan, Brooklyn Army Terminal Annex Building, Bronx Bathgate Industrial Park.
  • Jacob Javits center, CUNY and SUNY drive-through centers are under preparation.
  • The first group candidates are medical crews, nursing homes patients and staffs, and the second group candidates are people over 75 years old.
  • On 1/5, the positives in NY State were 12,666 and the death toll was 149.

 

Return-to-office ideas stir again after vaccination starts

(WSJ   12/30)

  • Landlords are hoping vaccines lure millions back to workplaces; landscape has changed.
  • But it isn’t going to be soon.  Rather, a widespread return probably won’t take place until the late spring or early summer of 2021 when enough people have been vaccinated in the U.S. for the population to come close to achieving “herd immunity”.
  • Office rents could fall as much as 8% this year, forecasted CBRE Group Inc.  That Is still not as far as rents fell following the 2008 financial crisis, when they dropped close to 13%.
  • At least 65% of the U.S. population must be immune for the contagion rate to fall below fewer than 10 new cases per 100,000 a day, which is a major return to the office is likely to begin, public health experts say.

 

U.S. Shopping Malls Collapsed due to Covid-19

(Korea Times  12/31 )

  • Through 2021, shopping malls still will face tough time. One of biggest shopping mall owners, Simon Property Group said the rent collection become 51% in April and May.
  • Data company, Placer said visitors to U.S. 16 major shopping malls during the Black Friday last year were reduced to 50% and said it was most quiet Black Friday for last 20 years. However, the year-end consumer spending increased 7.6% which means online shopping did lead the spending.
  • Coresight Research said that at least 25% of shopping malls will be closed in 2021, or at most 50%.

 

Costar and RentPath deal is in danger

(WSJ  1/6)

  • After real-estate data company Costar said it will buy the RentPath Holdings, which is in Chapter 11, for $587.5M in Feb, RentPath employees sent emails to customers saying prices would likely increase after the acquisitions closed.
  • The companies are now fighting in court over the deal’s collapse.  RentPath terminated the deal and is seeking a $58.75M breaking up fee from Costar, which has denied it is

 

In October 2020, home price went up 7.9

(Korea Times 1/6 )

  • According to CoreLogic Case-Shiller, U.S. home price went up 7.9% which is the highest increase since June 2014.
  • Due to Covid-19, people were shy form visiting restaurants, movie theater and wish to enjoy more space and comfort at home in rural area.
  • Home price has been increased in Phoenix for 17 months and lead to 12.7% up from the last year, 11.7% in Seattle, 11.6% in San Diego.

 

Amazon purchased 11 jets for the first time to ship orders faster

(Record  1/6)

  • Amazon said Tuesday that it bought 11 jets from Delta and WestJet airlines to boost its growing delivery network and get orders to shoppers faster.
  • Seattle-based Amazon has been working to deliver most of its packages itself and rely less on UPS, USPS, and other carriers.
  • Amazon said the 11 planes, all of which are Boeing 767-300s, will be converted to hold cargo instead of passengers. The purchases will bring it total fleet to 85 planes by 2022.

 

Goldman Sachs changed 2021 1st Qt GDP Growth forecast  from 3% to 5%

(Korea Daily 1/4)

  • Goldman Sachs Research Team announced that U.S 1st Qt GDP Growth forecast to 5% and also improved 2021 Growth Rate forecast from 5.3% to 5.8%.
  • $900B Stimulus package affected the forecast positively because originally they thought $700B Stimulus package will be available.
  • Last year, 2nd Qt Growth was -31,4% and the 3rd Qt achieved 33.4% growth. Atlanta Fed Reserve Bank forecasted 4th Qt Growth to 10.4%.

 

U.S. Economic growth will be 3% range and Unemployment rate will be 5.7%

(Korea Daily  1/6)

  • Upon the analysis from 76 investment banks worldwide, Korea Bank (한국은행) forecasted S. economic growth will be 3.1%-3.8%, compared to 2020.
  • Consumer spending will be increased, because of spreading vaccination, over 3.4% – 4.7%.  Residential market will be booming because of demographic changes and low interest rates.
  • UE rate will be lowered to 5.7%-7.3%, but employment disturbance will exist especially low income positions.
  • Recovering demands will bring price increase.  Used car price went up last year, but price increase for other durable goods will be limited.  Price for dining out, hotel accommodation, financial services will be increased this year.

 

Consider a Return to Almost Normal

   (WSJ   12/23 – Financial Analysis & Commentary )

  • S doesn’t need to reach full herd immunity from coronavirus before public spaces can begin phased re-openings.
  • Public health-experts continue to warn that things will get worse before they get better.  With more than 19 million confirmed cases in U.S. achieving herd immunity is a ways off.  That is 6% of U.S. Population which is roughly 333 millions.
  • However, the outlook for the year ahead is much brighter than those grim figures would suggest.  Eradicating Covid-19 shouldn’t be necessary to begin a gradual return to schools, restaurants, concert halls and arenas.  Not everyone,333 million population, will need a vaccine right away.
  • For starters, about 19 million people have a confirmed case. (The true number of cases is likely must higher: many patients with confirmed cases don’t show symptoms, and some people who experiences symptoms choose not to seek medical attention)
  • Children make up a large share of the U.S. population, and there is little evidence that schools are hot spots for spreading the virus.  That suggests vaccinating children shouldn’t be a prerequisite for returning to normal.
  • Currently about 2 million people in the U.S. have begun the vaccination process, but the pace should ramp up in the months ahead, as vaccine production from Pfizer and Moderna increase.  Further reinforcements are likely on the way from Johnson & Johnson is expected to present data for its vaccine candidate early next month.
  • Other vaccine , from companies such as AstraZenaca and Novavax, could arrive shortly after that.
  • A return to full, unrestricted capacity in public spaces might not be realistic in the near future.  But investors and the general public have reason to hope that markedly better days could arrive by the spring.
  • NJ Vaccine pre-registration: https://covid19.nj.gov/pages/vaccine

 

 

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Stephen Lee

He has been in Real Estate industry in about 20 years and has been Broker of Record for 9 years. His experience includes residential, commercial, and property management. Prior to involving with Real Estate business, he has been involved in the digital communication equipment industry utilizing his engineering background and education, including running own company. He has established C Land Realty in 2011 which has grown to staffing over 100 Real Estate agents and the annual transaction amount of over $110,000,000 today.

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