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Weekly News (January 23, 2019)

  1. “Bayfront” Mixed Use complex development in Jersey City is expected to come
  • 100 Ac former chromium-polluted brownfield, cleaned up by Honeywell
  • Southwest section in Greenville area
  • The city is buying the property and develop mixed use complex. The council approved to go and get the money (the city will issue $400M bond)
  • 8,100 apartments, 600,000 sf retail space, 1M sf office space, 23 Ac green area
  • Will seek development companies and public/private investors
  • The mayor Steve Fulop thinks the plan can feature up 30% affordable units
  • Councilman Michael Yun encourages Korean to invest this project

 

  1. “Willets Point” development project is being re-emerging
  • Redevelopment committee re-submitted 2 possible proposals to DEC recently
  • 1st plan: 6 Ac (former junk car field) near Citi Field. The Plan includes 1100 units of low income apartment, fire station, police station, high school, banks, pharmacy, and other retails spaces
  • 2nd plan: 27 Ac includes football stadium for 25,000 capacity, police station, fire station, school, and mixed-use complex
  • Former mayor Bloomberg proposed 1st plan in 2007 and the city council passed the plan in 2013
  • For last 10 years, local politicians and residents opposed the plan

 

  1. 4 Story Apartment in Clinton Hill, Brooklyn sold at $4.225M
  • 500 Clinton Ave, Brooklyn
  • Built in 1930 /3 x 1 bedroom, 3 x 2 bedroom, duplex 3 bedroom  (total 7 units)
  • 6000 sf (sold at $704/sf)

 

  1. Houses over $1M would be sold after necessary upgrades
  • According to WSJ Manson section, luxury house needs to have upgrades to sell
  • “Glass” material indicates bright, light-filled, Southern : “Glass sliding (French) door to deck”
  • High ceiling: Cathedral ceiling, Vaulted ceiling
  • Quartzite counter top (white or gray color)
  • Butler’s Pantry: utility (storage cabinet) area between dining room and kitchen (with wine cooler, ice maker, dish washer, etc)
  • According to Realtor.com, house with Butler Pantry would be sold 40 -60 days earlier

 

  1. 2018 Foreclosure decreased : lowest in 13 years
  • According to Atom Data, 625,000 foreclosures in 2017: Lowest since 2005
  • 2010 was the peak: 2.9M
  • In some area, foreclosure was increased: Florida was 0.71% which is increased by 13% from a year ago. New Jersey was 1.33%, highest state
  • Experts forecast foreclosure might increase this year

 

  1. M Gen becomes biggest buyer group in US
  • In 2019, M generation buyers will be 45%, baby boomers will be 17%, X generation will be 37%
  • Buyers, especially first home buyers will face tough competition
  • Mortgage rate will be increased in 2019: 3% range in 2017, 4% range in 2018, 5% range in 2019 /reference rate increase will be 2 – 3 times in 2019
  • 10 year treasury bond rate will be middle of 3%
  • Over all still low rate, but buyers were spoiled with low rate for 10 years
  • Buyer’s buying power becomes weak: interest rate hike will make feeling of 10% higher price than 2018 /still house price will be increasing mode even though slower rate which is 3 ~ 4 %
  • Over all nationwide, number of sales will be decreased due to house price increase and interest rates increase
  • Low inventory problems will be easy, but not so dramatically
  • Inventory over $1M will be better, but $300K – $500K range inventory still have steep competition among first home buyer

 

  1. New York population increased while Korean population stays flat
  • Korean decreased by 0.2% between 2010 ~ 2015 to 98,158 while NY total population increased by 4% ( Asian increased by 13%)
  • 76% of Korean in NY is labor force (18 – 64 year old) while NY total labor force is 66%
  • 53 % of Korean in NY has college degree while NY total has 36%
  • Korean LEP is 50% while NY LEP is 23%.( Senior Korean LEP is 88% while NY senior LEP is 33%)

 

  1. Government Shut Down affects home buyers
  • 12/22 started. 33rd day as of today
  • Many lending programs need to verify IRS tax report through the form 4506T
  • Government employee buyers could not get the employment verification letter
  • On the contrary, some buyers’ lock-in would beneficial because interest rates are going down and say low for a while
  • According to NAR, for those agents who think shut down affects the market negatively, 25% said buyers gave up buying, 13% said closings are being delayed due to tax return verification, and 9% said buyers through FHA loans are being delayed loan approval

 

  1. There will be no recession for next one or two years
  • According to KOCHAM seminar in Fort Lee on 1/17, 1st Qt and 2nd Qt 2019 US Economic growth will be 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. 2nd half growth will be 2.2%. Entire 2019 growth will be 2.7%
  • In 2020, economic growth will be 2.2%
  • Lebanon mentioned job growth, government expense growth leading whole expense growth show stable foundation
  • JaeWoo Kim mentioned Materials, Airline, Logistics, Technology, Car sales, Real Estate will be strong in 2019, especially software technology will show strong investment
  • If recession will happen, three things should happen at the same times: 1.Unbalance among different industries and 2. Consequential financial unbalance 3. Failure of economic policy

 


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Stephen Lee

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