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Weekly News (August 9, 2017)

1. Former Hess terminal in Edgewater, NJ will become mixed use complex?

  • Plan is to build 1872 unit residential and retail complex (8.7 ACRE on River Rd) ←→ Town wants to seize the property through eminent domain
  • The developer (615 River Rd Partners) is ready to the Mayor (Michael McPartland) and other town officials
  • Will appear before the board on 9/12 to request multiple variances (height, density, land use)
  • Town is intended to buy this lot for $25 Million (largest undeveloped land on the Hudson River waterfront north of Hoboken) for Public works, parking and additional parkland

2. New Garment District in Brooklyn, NY

  • Former Brooklyn Army Terminal in Sunset Park → Becomes 2nd garment district
  • According to NYCEDC, $115 Million invested → will complete the end of this year (300,000 SF)
  • Nearby Ferry terminal will have a sign to Garment District
  • Moving Garment business from Manhattan Garment district to this 2nd Garment District is welcome → will support establish modern process facility

3. Manhattan → Small business’s grave yard? (The Korea Times 8/9/2017) 

  • Recently a deli owner closed down his deli business in K town (Landlord asked $100,000 rent from $80,000)
  • Some store raised 10% in the area (Manhattan average increase : 2~5%)
  • Typical K town rent: $200~250 / SF (Office: $50~$55 / SF) and mostly Triple Net
  • Fort Lee, NJ → $95 / SF, Office: $35~$45 / SF) due to Hudson Lights project
  • Palisades Park, NJ → $45~$65 / SF, Office: $35~$45 / SF

4. New Apartment construction → NY area is #1

  • According to RentCafe, NY metro area new apartment units → 26,739 units by 2017 (#1 in US)
  • 17,000 units Last year: 57% Up in 2017 (Dallas: 24,960 units, Fort Worth: 17,960 units)
  • In NY/NJ metro, Manhattan: 7023, Brooklyn: 6984, Queens: 4165, Northern NJ: 3510, Mid NJ: 2426.
  • Accordingly, residential vacancy rate is expected to be 11% in NYC in 2018 (Currently VC rate: 3.8% / US Average rate: 4.4%)
  • 40,000 units will be supplied around end of 2018 (LIC is #1 in 30 big cities in US for new apartment 12,533 units supply between 2010~2016)
  • Recently, rent increase is slowing down and more landlord concession → Rent down by 2.7% in 2020 / Cap rate → 4.5%

5. Reasons for Mortgage Interest rate increase

  • Federal Reference rate is controlled by FRB. Long term rate will follow US treasury bond income rate / Shot term rate (Variable rate) will follow reference rate by FRB
  • Contractionary policy has been announce at June FOMC meeting → upward Interest rate
  • Unemployment rate decrease →4.4% → Increase employment → upward Interest rate
  • Consumer confidence level is being checked when mortgage rate is determined
    (High confidence level → high Interest rate)
  • Inflation → high mortgage rate (Current inflation: 1.5%~2%: low)
  • Stocks move high → triggers mortgage rate upward (investors sell bonds and buy stocks → increase bonds return rate → mortgage rate upward)
  • Trade Conflict → National debt: $20 Trillion. 1/3 is kept by foreign banks
    If trade conflict → foreign countries sell US bond → Bond return rate go up → Mortgage rate upward

6. Pending Home Sales improved in June

  • For 3 months, pending sales declined → Improved in June.
  • NAR announced pending home sale index 110.2 → up by 1.5% in June
  • US housing market is increasingly confronting shortage of inventory

7. Foreign buyers continue to increase (Articled by Charles Oppler)

  • According to NAR, Foreign investment in US continue to grow in 2017
  • New Jersey is 5th for foreign buyers ← Close to NYC (Global financial capital of the world)
  • In 2016, FL, TX, Cal, NJ, Arizona were the destinations of foreign buyer home sales
  • New Jersey becomes more diverse → Multicultural downtowns, schools, recreational programs → Melting pot of diversity
  • Over $153 Billion in total seals closed in US in 2016 → 49% gain over the previous year
  • Residential investment led by China: $31.7 Billion , Canada: $19 Billion, UK: $9.5 Billion, Mexico: $9.3 Billion, India: $7.8 Billion

8. Nationwide Top Real Estate agent: commission $35 Million~$42 Million ?

  • According to Realty Trend, an agent in Texas → Ben Coberello
  • He sold 3500 houses/units last year (Mainly average house price $400,000)
  • Used to a developer → Homes USA Realty about 10 years ago
  • Currently 1200 listings on MLS (Under Contract: 400~500 houses)
  • Mainly his target → Major local developers and get into pre-sale agreement

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Stephen Lee

He has been in Real Estate industry in about 20 years and has been Broker of Record for 9 years. His experience includes residential, commercial, and property management. Prior to involving with Real Estate business, he has been involved in the digital communication equipment industry utilizing his engineering background and education, including running own company. He has established C Land Realty in 2011 which has grown to staffing over 100 Real Estate agents and the annual transaction amount of over $110,000,000 today.

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